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30-year bond auction of 7 November 2018 (new issue)

The 30-year bond sold $22.875 billion at a high yield of 3.418% on , with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.06.

Coupon
3.375%
Announced
Issued
Matures

High yield

3.418%

Median yield 3.360%

Bid-to-cover

2.06

▼ −0.36 since 11 Oct

Sold

$22.87 billion

$19 billion offered

Indirect bidders

59.1%

Of competitive bids accepted

The high yield was the highest for a 30-year bond since 12 June 2014

High yield at each 30-year bond auction, %

The high yield was the highest for a 30-year bond since 12 June 201436 auctions from 10 December 2015 to 7 November 2018; the latest at 3.418%.2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%201620172018This auction, 3.418%The high yield was the highest for a 30-year bond since 12 June 201436 auctions from 10 December 2015 to 7 November 2018; the latest at 3.418%.2.6%2.8%3.0%3.2%3.4%3.6%201720183.418%

Source: U.S. Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service, Fiscal Data, Treasury Securities Auctions Data. Observed .

The 36 auctions as a table
High yield and bid-to-cover of the last 36 30-year bond auctions, newest first
AuctionHigh yield, %Bid-to-cover
3.4182.06
3.3442.42
3.0882.34
3.0902.27
2.9582.34
3.1002.38
3.1302.38
3.0442.41
3.1092.38
3.1212.26
2.8672.74
2.8042.48
2.8012.23
2.8702.53
2.7902.21
2.8182.32
2.9362.31
2.8702.32
3.0502.19
2.9382.23
3.1702.34
3.0052.25
2.9142.32
3.1522.39
2.9022.11
2.4702.44
2.4752.13
2.2742.24
2.1722.48
2.4752.42
2.6152.19
2.5962.40
2.7202.33
2.5002.09
2.9052.29
2.9782.42

Against its own history

Against the previous 12 auctions of the 30-year bond
MeasureThis auctionMedianHigherLower
Bid-to-cover ratio2.062.3812 of 120 of 12
High yield3.4183.0890 of 1212 of 12
Indirect bidders' share59.161.911 of 121 of 12
Direct bidders' share2.99.712 of 120 of 12
Primary dealers' share38.127.60 of 1212 of 12
High minus median, basis points5.84.01 of 1211 of 12

The table scrolls sideways; the first column stays in place.

  • Bid-to-cover ratio: Lowest for a 30-year bond since 12 February 2009 (115 auctions in between).
  • Direct bidders' share: Lowest for a 30-year bond since 10 September 2009 (109 auctions in between).
  • Primary dealers' share: Highest for a 30-year bond since 13 August 2015 (38 auctions in between).

Who bought the 30-year bond?

Indirect bidders took 59.1% of the competitive bids accepted

Share of competitive bids accepted, %. Grey: the previous 30-year bond auction, 11 October 2018

Indirect bidders took 59.1% of the competitive bids acceptedIndirect bidders 59.1%, Direct bidders 2.9%, Primary dealers 38.1%Indirect bidders59.1%64.4%Direct bidders2.9%12.8%Primary dealers38.1%22.8%Indirect bidders took 59.1% of the competitive bids acceptedIndirect bidders 59.1%, Direct bidders 2.9%, Primary dealers 38.1%Indirect bidders59.1%64.4%Direct bidders2.9%12.8%Primary dealers38.1%22.8%
The shares as a table
Shares of competitive bids accepted, %
BidderThis auctionPrevious
Indirect bidders59.164.4
Direct bidders2.912.8
Primary dealers38.122.8

About these figures

Treasury's full result, how to read it, its limits and sources

Treasury's published result

FieldValue
Offered as30-Year, new issue
Offering amount$19,000,000,000
Bids received$42,970,340,400
Sold$22,874,685,200
Competitive bids accepted$18,993,389,800
Non-competitive bids accepted$6,610,700
Federal Reserve (SOMA) add-on$3,874,684,700
Foreign and international (FIMA) non-competitive$0
High yield, %3.418
Median rate, %3.360
Low rate, %3.270
Interest rate (coupon), %3.375
Bids at the high rate filled, %72.32
Bid-to-cover ratio2.06
Indirect bidders accepted$11,216,389,800
Direct bidders accepted$550,000,000
Primary dealers accepted$7,227,000,000
Indirect bidders' share, % (ours)59.1
Direct bidders' share, % (ours)2.9
Primary dealers' share, % (ours)38.1
High minus median, basis points (ours)5.8
Treasury par yield curve, 30-year point, same day, %3.43
High yield minus that point, basis points (ours)-1.2

Treasury's own files: announcement (PDF) · results (PDF)

How to read this result

The high yield is the highest rate Treasury accepted; every winning bidder gets it. The bid-to-cover ratio is bids received divided by the amount sold. Shares are of competitive bids accepted. High minus median shows how far the accepted cut-off sat above the middle accepted bid; it is not the market's auction tail, which needs a when-issued price that is not public.

The par yield curve comparison sets the high yield against Treasury's own par yield curve on the auction day, at the point nearest this security's maturity (30-year). Treasury fixes that curve from market quotes in the late afternoon, after the auction closed, so the gap mixes the auction's pricing with the afternoon's market move. It is not the auction tail either.

What this number cannot tell you

  • Why it sold where it did. Results show what was bid and accepted, not the reasons behind any bid.
  • The auction tail as markets quote it. That compares the high yield with the when-issued yield just before bids closed, a market price that is not public; we show high minus median instead, a different measure.
  • Who the bidders are. Indirect bidders include foreign and international accounts bidding through the New York Fed and investors bidding through dealers; Treasury does not publish names.
  • Demand on another day. A bid-to-cover ratio counts bids at one auction against the amount offered, and the amount offered changes from auction to auction.

The longer windows

Each measure against earlier 30-year bond auctions: how many were higher and lower, and their median
MeasureThis auctionWindowHigherLowerMedian
Bid-to-cover ratio2.06Last 24 auctions24 of 240 of 242.33
Bid-to-cover ratio2.06Since 8 May 2008116 of 1171 of 1172.42
Bid-to-cover ratio2.06All 124 since 8 February 2001118 of 1246 of 1242.41
High yield3.418Last 24 auctions0 of 2424 of 242.982
High yield3.418Since 8 May 200843 of 11774 of 1173.130
High yield3.418All 191 since 1 November 1979117 of 19174 of 1914.198
Indirect bidders' share59.1Last 24 auctions21 of 243 of 2462.1
Indirect bidders' share59.1All 117 since 8 May 200831 of 11786 of 11746.0
Direct bidders' share2.9Last 24 auctions24 of 240 of 248.2
Direct bidders' share2.9All 117 since 8 May 2008114 of 1173 of 11711.1
Primary dealers' share38.1Last 24 auctions0 of 2424 of 2428.8
Primary dealers' share38.1All 117 since 8 May 200865 of 11752 of 11741.4
High minus median, basis points5.8Last 24 auctions6 of 2417 of 245.0
High minus median, basis points5.8Since 8 May 200844 of 11771 of 1174.8
High minus median, basis points5.8All 191 since 1 November 197948 of 191141 of 1913.9

The table scrolls sideways; the first column stays in place.

Sources

Source: U.S. Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service, Fiscal Data, Treasury Securities Auctions Data. Observed .

Shares of competitive bids, grades against earlier auctions and the high-minus-median spread are computed by 500metrics from Treasury's published fields; how.

Source: U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury par yield curve rates. Observed .

How to cite this

U.S. Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service, Fiscal Data, Treasury Securities Auctions Data, auction of 7 November 2018. Results file: https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2018/R_20181107_1.pdf. Compiled by 500metrics, "30-year bond auction of 7 November 2018 (new issue)", https://500metrics.com/treasury/auctions/30-year-bond/2018-11-07.

Sources and licence

Sources and licence

  • U.S. Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service, Fiscal Data (source). Licence: Public domain, a work of the US federal government
  • U.S. Treasury, daily par yield curve rates (source). Licence: Public domain, a work of the US federal government

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