500metrics

All sources checked Checked

30-year bond auction of 11 October 2018 (reopening)

The 30-year bond sold $15 billion at a high yield of 3.344% on , with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.42.

Coupon
3.000%
Announced
Issued
Matures

High yield

3.344%

Median yield 3.309%

Bid-to-cover

2.42

▲ +0.08 since 13 Sep

Sold

$15.00 billion

$15 billion offered

Indirect bidders

64.4%

Of competitive bids accepted

The high yield was the highest for a 30-year bond since 10 July 2014

High yield at each 30-year bond auction, %

The high yield was the highest for a 30-year bond since 10 July 201436 auctions from 12 November 2015 to 11 October 2018; the latest at 3.344%.2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%201620172018This auction, 3.344%The high yield was the highest for a 30-year bond since 10 July 201436 auctions from 12 November 2015 to 11 October 2018; the latest at 3.344%.2.6%2.8%3.0%3.2%3.4%201720183.344%

Source: U.S. Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service, Fiscal Data, Treasury Securities Auctions Data. Observed .

The 36 auctions as a table
High yield and bid-to-cover of the last 36 30-year bond auctions, newest first
AuctionHigh yield, %Bid-to-cover
3.3442.42
3.0882.34
3.0902.27
2.9582.34
3.1002.38
3.1302.38
3.0442.41
3.1092.38
3.1212.26
2.8672.74
2.8042.48
2.8012.23
2.8702.53
2.7902.21
2.8182.32
2.9362.31
2.8702.32
3.0502.19
2.9382.23
3.1702.34
3.0052.25
2.9142.32
3.1522.39
2.9022.11
2.4702.44
2.4752.13
2.2742.24
2.1722.48
2.4752.42
2.6152.19
2.5962.40
2.7202.33
2.5002.09
2.9052.29
2.9782.42
3.0702.41

Against its own history

Against the previous 12 auctions of the 30-year bond
MeasureThis auctionMedianHigherLower
Bid-to-cover ratio2.422.383 of 129 of 12
High yield3.3443.0660 of 1212 of 12
Indirect bidders' share64.461.91 of 1211 of 12
Direct bidders' share12.89.72 of 1210 of 12
Primary dealers' share22.827.611 of 121 of 12
High minus median, basis points3.54.39 of 123 of 12

The table scrolls sideways; the first column stays in place.

Who bought the 30-year bond?

Indirect bidders took 64.4% of the competitive bids accepted

Share of competitive bids accepted, %. Grey: the previous 30-year bond auction, 13 September 2018

Indirect bidders took 64.4% of the competitive bids acceptedIndirect bidders 64.4%, Direct bidders 12.8%, Primary dealers 22.8%Indirect bidders64.4%61.7%Direct bidders12.8%11.3%Primary dealers22.8%27.0%Indirect bidders took 64.4% of the competitive bids acceptedIndirect bidders 64.4%, Direct bidders 12.8%, Primary dealers 22.8%Indirect bidders64.4%61.7%Direct bidders12.8%11.3%Primary dealers22.8%27.0%
The shares as a table
Shares of competitive bids accepted, %
BidderThis auctionPrevious
Indirect bidders64.461.7
Direct bidders12.811.3
Primary dealers22.827.0

About these figures

Treasury's full result, how to read it, its limits and sources

Treasury's published result

FieldValue
Offered as29-Year 10-Month, reopening
Offering amount$15,000,000,000
Bids received$36,292,138,200
Sold$15,000,000,400
Competitive bids accepted$14,997,966,200
Non-competitive bids accepted$2,034,200
Federal Reserve (SOMA) add-on$0
Foreign and international (FIMA) non-competitive$0
High yield, %3.344
Median rate, %3.309
Low rate, %3.230
Interest rate (coupon), %3.000
Bids at the high rate filled, %5.26
Bid-to-cover ratio2.42
Indirect bidders accepted$9,660,865,200
Direct bidders accepted$1,916,000,000
Primary dealers accepted$3,421,101,000
Indirect bidders' share, % (ours)64.4
Direct bidders' share, % (ours)12.8
Primary dealers' share, % (ours)22.8
High minus median, basis points (ours)3.5
Treasury par yield curve, 30-year point, same day, %3.32
High yield minus that point, basis points (ours)2.4

Treasury's own files: announcement (PDF) · results (PDF)

How to read this result

The high yield is the highest rate Treasury accepted; every winning bidder gets it. The bid-to-cover ratio is bids received divided by the amount sold. Shares are of competitive bids accepted. High minus median shows how far the accepted cut-off sat above the middle accepted bid; it is not the market's auction tail, which needs a when-issued price that is not public.

The par yield curve comparison sets the high yield against Treasury's own par yield curve on the auction day, at the point nearest this security's maturity (30-year). Treasury fixes that curve from market quotes in the late afternoon, after the auction closed, so the gap mixes the auction's pricing with the afternoon's market move. It is not the auction tail either.

What this number cannot tell you

  • Why it sold where it did. Results show what was bid and accepted, not the reasons behind any bid.
  • The auction tail as markets quote it. That compares the high yield with the when-issued yield just before bids closed, a market price that is not public; we show high minus median instead, a different measure.
  • Who the bidders are. Indirect bidders include foreign and international accounts bidding through the New York Fed and investors bidding through dealers; Treasury does not publish names.
  • Demand on another day. A bid-to-cover ratio counts bids at one auction against the amount offered, and the amount offered changes from auction to auction.

The longer windows

Each measure against earlier 30-year bond auctions: how many were higher and lower, and their median
MeasureThis auctionWindowHigherLowerMedian
Bid-to-cover ratio2.42Last 24 auctions4 of 2420 of 242.33
Bid-to-cover ratio2.42Since 8 May 200856 of 11658 of 1162.42
Bid-to-cover ratio2.42All 123 since 8 February 200157 of 12364 of 1232.41
High yield3.344Last 24 auctions0 of 2424 of 242.948
High yield3.344Since 8 May 200846 of 11670 of 1163.126
High yield3.344All 190 since 1 November 1979120 of 19070 of 1904.218
Indirect bidders' share64.4Last 24 auctions6 of 2418 of 2462.1
Indirect bidders' share64.4All 116 since 8 May 200810 of 116106 of 11645.9
Direct bidders' share12.8Last 24 auctions3 of 2421 of 248.0
Direct bidders' share12.8All 116 since 8 May 200847 of 11669 of 11611.1
Primary dealers' share22.8Last 24 auctions23 of 241 of 2428.8
Primary dealers' share22.8All 116 since 8 May 2008115 of 1161 of 11641.6
High minus median, basis points3.5Last 24 auctions21 of 243 of 245.0
High minus median, basis points3.5Since 8 May 200893 of 11621 of 1164.9
High minus median, basis points3.5All 190 since 1 November 1979106 of 19082 of 1903.9

The table scrolls sideways; the first column stays in place.

Sources

Source: U.S. Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service, Fiscal Data, Treasury Securities Auctions Data. Observed .

Shares of competitive bids, grades against earlier auctions and the high-minus-median spread are computed by 500metrics from Treasury's published fields; how.

Source: U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury par yield curve rates. Observed .

How to cite this

U.S. Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service, Fiscal Data, Treasury Securities Auctions Data, auction of 11 October 2018. Results file: https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2018/R_20181011_1.pdf. Compiled by 500metrics, "30-year bond auction of 11 October 2018 (reopening)", https://500metrics.com/treasury/auctions/30-year-bond/2018-10-11.

Sources and licence

Sources and licence

  • U.S. Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service, Fiscal Data (source). Licence: Public domain, a work of the US federal government
  • U.S. Treasury, daily par yield curve rates (source). Licence: Public domain, a work of the US federal government

Our text and compilation: CC BY 4.0. How to reuse and cite this page.