Economic Projections · growth, unemployment, prices, interest rates, wages and corporate profits
What does CBO project for the US economy?
In its February 2026 release, stored here on , the Congressional Budget Office projects real GDP growth of 2.4% and an unemployment rate of 4.6% in 2026.
CBO's projections of real GDP growth, CPI-U inflation and PCE price inflation
The lines
- Real GDP growth1.8%
- CPI-U inflation2.3%
- PCE price inflation2.0%
CBO's projections of the unemployment rate, labor force participation and wage growth
The lines
- Unemployment rate4.2%
- Labor force participation61.9%
- Wage growth2.9%
CBO's projections of the 3-month bill rate, the 10-year note rate and the federal funds rate
The lines
- 3-month bill rate3.1%
- 10-year note rate4.4%
- Federal funds rate3.3%
CBO's projections of wages and salaries and corporate profits
The lines
- Wages and salaries$19,829 billion
- Corporate profits$5,517 billion
Each point is one year of the Congressional Budget Office's February 2026 projection, or a year it counts as actual: CBO's figures, not ours. Pointing at the chart shows the year and the value.
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The numbers as a table
Observed .
CBO's economic projectionsNot our forecast
Congressional Budget Office, CBO's economic projections, February 2026 release, stored here on . These are CBO's estimates, not ours.
| Measure | 2024, actual | 2025 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% |
| CPI-U inflation | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.3% |
| Core CPI-U inflation | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.3% |
| PCE price inflation | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.0% |
| Unemployment rate | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% |
| Labor force participation | 62.6% | 62.4% | 61.9% |
| Wage growth | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% |
| 3-month bill rate | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.1% |
| 10-year note rate | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% |
| Federal funds rate | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.3% |
| GDP | $29,298 billion | $30,705 billion | $47,147 billion |
| Wages and salaries | $12,388 billion | $13,000 billion | $19,829 billion |
| Corporate profits | $3,802 billion | $3,992 billion | $5,517 billion |
Understanding CBO's economic projections
Where it stands today
What do these figures measure?
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) publishes its projections of the economy together with its budget projections, because its budget numbers depend on them. This page shows a selection: growth of the economy, unemployment, prices, interest rates, wages and corporate profits. Every figure on it is CBO's estimate, not ours.
Read more
CBO's file marks each year as actual or projected. A year marked actual is a figure CBO takes from the government's statistics; a year marked projected is CBO's estimate. The years are calendar years, and each figure is CBO's value for the whole year.
Growth, prices and wages are changes from the year before, in percent. Interest rates and the unemployment rate are in percent. Wages and salaries, corporate profits and GDP are in billions of dollars.
What 500metrics adds: nothing is worked out. The page sets CBO's figures out year by year and keeps each earlier release, so that one year can be compared across releases.
The numbers behind the chart
What does CBO's economic projections give for each year?February 2026 release, CBO's estimates, not ours
| Year | Real GDP growth (%) | CPI-U inflation (%) | Core CPI-U inflation (%) | PCE price inflation (%) | Unemployment rate (%) | Labor force participation (%) | Wage growth (%) | 3-month bill rate (%) | 10-year note rate (%) | Federal funds rate (%) | GDP ($ billion) | Wages and salaries ($ billion) | Corporate profits ($ billion) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023, actual | 2.9 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 62.6 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 27,812 | 11,732 | 3,617 |
| 2024, actual | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 62.6 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 29,298 | 12,388 | 3,802 |
| 2025 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 62.4 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 30,705 | 13,000 | 3,992 |
| 2026 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 62.4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 32,274 | 13,552 | 4,187 |
| 2027 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 62.3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 33,652 | 14,135 | 4,191 |
| 2028 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 62.3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 35,002 | 14,721 | 4,192 |
| 2029 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 62.2 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 36,351 | 15,309 | 4,221 |
| 2030 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 62.1 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 37,743 | 15,912 | 4,324 |
| 2031 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 62.1 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 39,175 | 16,526 | 4,476 |
| 2032 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 62.0 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 40,650 | 17,146 | 4,660 |
| 2033 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 62.0 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 42,185 | 17,783 | 4,857 |
| 2034 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 61.9 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 43,777 | 18,440 | 5,067 |
| 2035 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 61.9 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 45,431 | 19,121 | 5,289 |
| 2036 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 61.9 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 47,147 | 19,829 | 5,517 |
The table scrolls sideways; the first column stays in place.
How did CBO's estimate change from one release to the next?CBO's economic projections: Feb 2026, Sep 2025, Jan 2025, Jun 2024, Feb 2024; CBO's estimates, not ours
| Measure | Year | Feb 2026 release | Sep 2025 release | Jan 2025 release | Jun 2024 release | Feb 2024 release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth | 2028 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| CPI-U inflation | 2028 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Core CPI-U inflation | 2028 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| PCE price inflation | 2028 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Unemployment rate | 2028 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| Labor force participation | 2028 | 62.3 | 62.1 | 61.9 | 61.8 | 62.1 |
| Wage growth | 2028 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 |
| 3-month bill rate | 2028 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 2.7 |
| 10-year note rate | 2028 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.8 |
| Federal funds rate | 2028 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 2.9 |
| GDP | 2028 | 35,002 | 34,516 | 34,078 | 33,414 | 33,371 |
| Wages and salaries | 2034 | 18,440 | n/a | 18,624 | 18,306 | 18,382 |
| Corporate profits | 2034 | 5,067 | n/a | 4,823 | 4,482 | 4,415 |
The table scrolls sideways; the first column stays in place.
What did CBO's September 2025 release give for each year?CBO's economic projections, an earlier release; CBO's estimates, not ours
| Year | Real GDP growth (%) | CPI-U inflation (%) | Core CPI-U inflation (%) | PCE price inflation (%) | Unemployment rate (%) | Labor force participation (%) | Wage growth (%) | 3-month bill rate (%) | 10-year note rate (%) | Federal funds rate (%) | GDP ($ billion) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022, actual | 2.5 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 62.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 26,007 |
| 2023, actual | 2.9 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 62.6 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 27,721 |
| 2024, actual | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 62.6 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 29,185 |
| 2025 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 62.4 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 30,533 |
| 2026 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 62.3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 31,978 |
| 2027 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 62.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 33,254 |
| 2028 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 62.1 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 34,516 |
The table scrolls sideways; the first column stays in place.
What did CBO's January 2025 release give for each year?CBO's economic projections, an earlier release; CBO's estimates, not ours
| Year | Real GDP growth (%) | CPI-U inflation (%) | Core CPI-U inflation (%) | PCE price inflation (%) | Unemployment rate (%) | Labor force participation (%) | Wage growth (%) | 3-month bill rate (%) | 10-year note rate (%) | Federal funds rate (%) | GDP ($ billion) | Wages and salaries ($ billion) | Corporate profits ($ billion) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022, actual | 2.5 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 62.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 26,007 | 11,123 | 3,317 |
| 2023, actual | 2.9 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 62.6 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 27,721 | 11,725 | 3,547 |
| 2024 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 62.6 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 29,166 | 12,416 | 3,796 |
| 2025 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 62.6 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 30,441 | 13,023 | 3,895 |
| 2026 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 62.4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 31,641 | 13,623 | 3,933 |
| 2027 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 62.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 32,841 | 14,197 | 3,947 |
| 2028 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 61.9 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 34,078 | 14,796 | 3,940 |
| 2029 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 61.7 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 35,378 | 15,404 | 3,965 |
| 2030 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 61.6 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 36,739 | 16,016 | 4,068 |
| 2031 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 61.6 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 38,151 | 16,641 | 4,243 |
| 2032 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 61.5 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 39,627 | 17,284 | 4,441 |
| 2033 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 61.4 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 41,154 | 17,941 | 4,634 |
| 2034 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 61.4 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 42,728 | 18,624 | 4,823 |
| 2035 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 61.4 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 44,345 | 19,330 | 5,020 |
The table scrolls sideways; the first column stays in place.
What did CBO's June 2024 release give for each year?CBO's economic projections, an earlier release; CBO's estimates, not ours
| Year | Real GDP growth (%) | CPI-U inflation (%) | Core CPI-U inflation (%) | PCE price inflation (%) | Unemployment rate (%) | Labor force participation (%) | Wage growth (%) | 3-month bill rate (%) | 10-year note rate (%) | Federal funds rate (%) | GDP ($ billion) | Wages and salaries ($ billion) | Corporate profits ($ billion) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021, actual | 5.8 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 61.7 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 23,594 | 10,313 | 2,923 |
| 2022, actual | 1.9 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 62.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 25,744 | 11,116 | 3,209 |
| 2023, actual | 2.5 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 62.6 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 27,361 | 11,816 | 3,258 |
| 2024 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 62.5 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 28,792 | 12,478 | 3,427 |
| 2025 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 62.3 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 30,009 | 13,049 | 3,546 |
| 2026 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 62.1 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 31,132 | 13,589 | 3,598 |
| 2027 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 4.3 | 61.9 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 32,252 | 14,119 | 3,667 |
| 2028 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 4.4 | 61.8 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 33,414 | 14,664 | 3,715 |
| 2029 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 4.5 | 61.7 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 34,667 | 15,233 | 3,792 |
| 2030 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 61.6 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 35,990 | 15,817 | 3,907 |
| 2031 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 61.4 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 37,367 | 16,415 | 4,038 |
| 2032 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 61.3 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 38,792 | 17,027 | 4,183 |
| 2033 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 61.2 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 40,262 | 17,655 | 4,330 |
| 2034 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 61.1 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 41,783 | 18,306 | 4,482 |
The table scrolls sideways; the first column stays in place.
What did CBO's February 2024 release give for each year?CBO's economic projections, an earlier release; CBO's estimates, not ours
| Year | Real GDP growth (%) | CPI-U inflation (%) | Core CPI-U inflation (%) | PCE price inflation (%) | Unemployment rate (%) | Labor force participation (%) | Wage growth (%) | 3-month bill rate (%) | 10-year note rate (%) | Federal funds rate (%) | GDP ($ billion) | Wages and salaries ($ billion) | Corporate profits ($ billion) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021, actual | 5.8 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 61.7 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 23,594 | 10,313 | 2,923 |
| 2022, actual | 1.9 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 62.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 25,744 | 11,116 | 3,209 |
| 2023 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 62.6 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 27,341 | 11,808 | 3,216 |
| 2024 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 62.6 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 28,418 | 12,376 | 3,263 |
| 2025 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 62.5 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 29,565 | 12,952 | 3,354 |
| 2026 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 62.3 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 30,813 | 13,514 | 3,428 |
| 2027 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 62.2 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 32,075 | 14,066 | 3,512 |
| 2028 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 62.1 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 33,371 | 14,631 | 3,621 |
| 2029 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 4.5 | 62.0 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 34,714 | 15,220 | 3,748 |
| 2030 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 4.5 | 61.8 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 36,095 | 15,828 | 3,864 |
| 2031 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 4.5 | 61.7 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 37,516 | 16,451 | 3,984 |
| 2032 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 4.5 | 61.6 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 38,979 | 17,085 | 4,121 |
| 2033 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 4.5 | 61.5 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 40,488 | 17,728 | 4,262 |
| 2034 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 4.5 | 61.4 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 42,037 | 18,382 | 4,415 |
The table scrolls sideways; the first column stays in place.
What do these figures leave out, and how are they cited?Limits, dates and how to cite
What this number cannot tell you
- CBO's projections assume that current law stays as it is. They are CBO's estimates, not ours, and the box names the CBO release they come from.
- Earlier releases are kept in the tables. A release that gives fewer than five years of a measure is left out, and a measure that an earlier release did not publish has no row there.
- The government's statistics are revised after they are first published, and CBO changes its actual figures to match them in its next release.
Observed . Checked .
How to cite this
Congressional Budget Office, Economic Projections; CBO's economic projections, February 2026 release. Compiled by 500metrics, "What does CBO project for the US economy?", https://500metrics.com/treasury/cbo-economic-projections.
Can the data be downloaded?treasury-cbo-economic-projections.csv
Download every year and every CBO release as CSV: 805 rows, to , 95,015 bytes.
Our text and compilation: CC BY 4.0.
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