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Treasury par yield curve · 10-year minus 2-year spread

How often has the 10-year yield been below the 2-year yield?

On the 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield was +25 basis points; it has been below zero on 2,049 of 12,608 curve days since .

Right nowOurs

No. The 10-year yield is above the 2-year yield. It was last below it in September 2024.

Last below zero on , 796 days ago and 544 curve days ago.

The longest spell lasted 544 curve days; the longest unbroken run below zero was 537 days, from to .

The 10-year minus 2-year spread, the average of each month

Basis points, oursZero is the line between inverted and not

The 10-year minus 2-year spread, the average of each month, 1 Jun 1976 to 1 Nov 2026
The 10-year minus 2-year spread, the average of each month, 1 Nov 2016 to 1 Nov 2026
The 10-year minus 2-year spread, the average of each month, 1 Nov 2024 to 1 Nov 2026

Each point is the average of the spread over the curve days of one month; pointing at the chart shows the month. Below the zero line the 10-year yield is below the 2-year yield.

Observed .

The numbers behind the chart

Every spell with the spread below zeroNewest first
Every spell of the 10-year minus 2-year spread, newest first: first and last day below zero, curve days, days below zero, the lowest value and the two yields that day
First dayLast dayCurve daysDays below zeroLowest, basis pointsLowest on10-year yield, percent2-year yield, percent
544539−1083.864.94
22−52.392.44
33−41.491.53
2318−64.674.73
196185−194.614.80
6435−164.564.72
229227−525.866.38
4427−75.465.53
1616−148.548.68
6042−208.288.48
Show 4 more rows
First dayLast dayCurve daysDays below zeroLowest, basis pointsLowest on10-year yield, percent2-year yield, percent
137132−459.419.86
139119−7114.2814.99
286281−17013.2814.98
423423−24112.6215.03

The table scrolls sideways; the first column stays in place.

Which were the long inversions?Newest first

An era groups the spells of both spreads that start close together; these are the eras with a spell of 100 curve days or more, with this spread's part of each.

Long eras with the 10-year minus 2-year spread's spells, days below zero, longest spell and lowest value, newest first
EraSpellsDays below zeroLongest spell, curve daysLowest, basis points
to 2541544−108
to 133−4
to 3238196−19
to 1227229−52
to 3190137−45
to 3823423−241

The table scrolls sideways; the first column stays in place.

How many days was the spread below zero in each year?Newest year first
Curve days and days below zero of the 10-year minus 2-year spread in each year, newest first
YearCurve daysDays below zeroLowest, basis points
20262160n/a
20252490n/a
2024250166−47
2023250250−108
2022249125−84
20212510n/a
20202510n/a
20192503−4
20182490n/a
20172500n/a
20162500n/a
20152510n/a
20142500n/a
20132500n/a
20122500n/a
Show 36 more rows
YearCurve daysDays below zeroLowest, basis points
20112500n/a
20102510n/a
20092500n/a
20082510n/a
200725172−15
2006250163−19
20052503−2
20042500n/a
20032500n/a
20022500n/a
20012480n/a
2000251227−52
19992510n/a
199825027−7
19972500n/a
19962520n/a
19952500n/a
19942490n/a
19932500n/a
19922510n/a
19912500n/a
199025016−14
1989250165−45
19882509−3
19872500n/a
19862500n/a
19852480n/a
19842490n/a
19832500n/a
1982249118−71
1981249208−170
1980250158−241
1979248248−169
197824891−86
19772490n/a
19761470n/a
How are inversions counted, and what do the counts leave out?Rule, limits and source

How we count

  • A curve day is a day with a published yield. Holidays and weekends have none.
  • A spread is the 10-year yield minus a shorter yield, in basis points (hundredths of a percentage point). The yields have two decimals, so a spread is a whole number, and the spread is ours.
  • Below zero is inverted. A spread of exactly zero is not.
  • A spell is a stretch of curve days with the spread below zero in which a break of fewer than 20 curve days stays inside it. It ends after 20 curve days in a row at or above zero, and its last day is its last day below zero. The grouping is ours: another gap gives another number of spells. The longest unbroken run below zero is shown beside the longest spell.
  • An era groups the spells of both spreads where each starts within 200 calendar days of the end of the one before. A spread's page lists the eras with a spell of 100 curve days or more.
  • The yields from 2 January 1990 are Treasury's par yields. Before it they are the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System's Treasury constant maturity yields, which Treasury interpolates from its daily yield curve. The two are the same on every day both hold, and no day takes a value from both. How Treasury works out the yields has changed over the years.
  • The counts are counts of days on which one yield was below another. The series of a shorter yield begins when it begins, and nothing is counted before it.
  • These are published yields and our counts of them, not a forecast, and not advice about any security.

Source: U.S. Treasury, daily par yield curve rates, from the first day of the curve; before it, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Selected Interest Rates release, Treasury constant maturity yields.

Observed .

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