Treasury par yield curve · 20-year estimated return
How much did a 20-year Treasury bond return each year?
In 2025 a 20-year Treasury bond returned an estimated +5.66%, or +2.91% after inflation (estimated from Treasury par yields, month-ends through ).
The 20-year Treasury bond, estimated return by month and year
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Whole year | After inflation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +0.01 | +3.64 | −3.54 | −0.73 | +0.28 | +1.04 | −3.87 | +0.93 | −4.78 | +4.61 | – | – | −2.81 | – |
| 2025 | +0.15 | +4.70 | −0.53 | −0.39 | −2.76 | +2.19 | −0.87 | +0.78 | +2.33 | +1.16 | +0.77 | −1.79 | +5.66 | +2.91 |
| 2024 | −1.51 | −1.86 | +1.16 | −5.31 | +2.58 | +1.94 | +2.61 | +2.50 | +1.56 | −4.71 | +2.08 | −4.83 | −4.26 | −6.95 |
| 2023 | +5.35 | −4.01 | +4.36 | +0.45 | −2.55 | −0.35 | −1.81 | −1.89 | −6.32 | −3.16 | +6.71 | +7.36 | +3.08 | −0.27 |
| 2022 | −3.54 | −1.10 | −5.08 | −7.88 | −1.78 | −1.17 | +2.92 | −4.43 | −7.16 | −4.39 | +6.37 | −1.56 | −25.97 | −30.46 |
| 2021 | −3.76 | −6.36 | −3.48 | +2.12 | +0.34 | +3.13 | +3.33 | −0.51 | −2.62 | +0.82 | +2.32 | −1.33 | −6.33 | −12.49 |
| 2020 | +7.17 | +6.53 | +5.63 | +1.89 | −2.21 | +0.10 | +3.71 | −4.84 | +0.63 | −3.35 | +1.16 | −1.27 | +15.30 | +13.75 |
| 2019 | +0.84 | −1.41 | +5.03 | −1.61 | +5.91 | +1.47 | +0.19 | +9.05 | −2.49 | −0.82 | −0.97 | −2.70 | +12.39 | +9.88 |
| 2018 | −3.57 | −2.59 | +2.82 | −2.15 | +1.75 | +0.24 | −1.54 | +1.45 | −2.41 | −2.21 | +1.89 | +5.09 | −1.62 | −3.46 |
| 2017 | +0.38 | +1.46 | −0.69 | +1.61 | +1.30 | +0.06 | −0.55 | +3.20 | −2.26 | −0.24 | +0.37 | +1.30 | +5.99 | +3.80 |
Each chip is one month. The mark in its middle is zero: a fill to the right of it is a rise and a fill to the left a fall. A longer, brighter fill is a larger change, in five steps up to 5.12 and over; the last two columns have a scale of their own, up to 25.97 and over. Every chip prints its figure and sign. A dash is a month or a year with no figure. A year still running is counted through its last month: . The older years in the closed part below the table have the same columns and the same scales.
Earlier years: 1993 to 2016
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Whole year | After inflation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | +5.12 | +2.93 | +0.02 | −0.78 | +0.67 | +6.32 | +1.49 | −1.83 | −1.32 | −3.99 | −7.15 | −0.69 | +0.04 | −1.99 |
| 2015 | +7.21 | −5.20 | +1.31 | −2.62 | −1.95 | −2.81 | +3.63 | −0.25 | +2.25 | −0.72 | −0.71 | −0.40 | −0.84 | −1.56 |
| 2014 | +5.65 | +0.86 | +0.27 | +1.59 | +2.79 | −0.19 | +0.40 | +3.89 | −2.01 | +2.83 | +3.17 | +2.57 | +23.85 | +22.92 |
| 2013 | −3.59 | +1.46 | +0.22 | +3.66 | −6.68 | −3.70 | −1.47 | −1.44 | +1.00 | +1.44 | −2.71 | −2.22 | −13.56 | −14.84 |
| 2012 | −0.10 | −1.93 | −3.80 | +4.38 | +7.56 | −1.55 | +2.92 | −1.09 | −1.85 | −0.43 | +1.63 | −2.45 | +2.76 | +1.00 |
| 2011 | −2.31 | +1.43 | −0.18 | +2.24 | +3.64 | −2.11 | +4.79 | +8.81 | +8.42 | −3.24 | +2.07 | +3.33 | +29.42 | +25.70 |
| 2010 | +3.02 | +0.10 | −1.59 | +2.89 | +4.57 | +4.66 | +0.31 | +7.76 | −1.89 | −3.38 | −1.92 | −4.14 | +10.08 | +8.46 |
| 2009 | −10.93 | −1.32 | +5.55 | −6.33 | −2.84 | +0.89 | +0.49 | +2.38 | +1.98 | −1.95 | +1.97 | −6.28 | −16.26 | −18.48 |
| 2008 | +2.36 | +0.10 | +1.29 | −2.13 | −2.83 | +2.34 | −0.14 | +2.48 | +0.89 | −3.60 | +14.80 | +10.10 | +27.07 | +26.96 |
| 2007 | −0.97 | +3.48 | −1.37 | +0.91 | −2.33 | −0.93 | +3.06 | +2.06 | +0.15 | +1.68 | +4.99 | −0.42 | +10.51 | +6.17 |
| 2006 | −1.28 | +0.90 | −4.22 | −2.51 | −0.05 | +0.93 | +2.17 | +3.19 | +1.80 | +0.78 | +2.33 | −2.77 | +0.98 | −1.52 |
| 2005 | +3.11 | −1.53 | −0.74 | +3.90 | +3.15 | +1.96 | −3.29 | +3.83 | −3.78 | −2.41 | +0.78 | +2.99 | +7.77 | +4.21 |
| 2004 | +1.67 | +2.31 | +1.42 | −6.20 | −0.53 | +1.18 | +1.54 | +4.34 | +0.91 | +1.68 | −2.60 | +2.70 | +8.30 | +4.88 |
| 2003 | −0.86 | +3.36 | −1.39 | +1.04 | +6.08 | −1.73 | −10.62 | +1.67 | +5.74 | −3.17 | +0.43 | +1.67 | +1.11 | −0.75 |
| 2002 | +1.18 | +1.30 | −4.37 | +3.91 | +0.12 | +1.90 | +3.37 | +4.81 | +4.38 | −3.11 | −1.44 | +4.87 | +17.70 | +14.96 |
| 2001 | −0.25 | +2.15 | −0.62 | −3.25 | +0.14 | +0.95 | +4.06 | +2.15 | +0.69 | +5.44 | −5.45 | −1.90 | +3.66 | +2.08 |
| 2000 | +1.76 | +3.44 | +3.48 | −0.73 | −0.71 | +2.34 | +2.00 | +2.47 | −1.45 | +1.77 | +3.31 | +2.74 | +22.26 | +18.26 |
| 1999 | +0.93 | −5.40 | −0.33 | +0.26 | −1.90 | −1.07 | −0.71 | −0.47 | +0.76 | −0.02 | −0.56 | −1.72 | −9.93 | −12.28 |
| 1998 | +2.13 | −0.79 | +0.15 | +0.27 | +2.12 | +2.49 | −0.47 | +4.82 | +3.91 | −2.12 | +1.05 | −0.29 | +13.86 | +12.05 |
| 1997 | −0.85 | +0.03 | −2.68 | +2.40 | +1.22 | +1.97 | +6.28 | −3.19 | +2.99 | +3.48 | +1.54 | +1.66 | +15.47 | +13.54 |
| 1996 | −0.19 | −5.01 | −2.27 | −1.88 | −0.58 | +2.08 | +0.15 | −1.61 | +3.04 | +3.95 | +3.78 | −2.52 | −1.48 | −4.64 |
| 1995 | +2.76 | +2.99 | +1.03 | +1.86 | +8.23 | +1.43 | −2.04 | +2.31 | +1.87 | +2.78 | +2.80 | +2.70 | +32.45 | +29.17 |
| 1994 | +2.67 | −4.48 | −4.47 | −1.57 | −0.82 | −1.09 | +3.62 | −0.81 | −3.14 | −0.43 | +0.56 | +1.45 | −8.50 | −10.89 |
| 1993 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | −3.28 | +0.31 | – | – |
Observed .
Largest fallOurs
The largest fall of the compounded return, from the end of July 2020 to the end of October 2023, was 42.32 percent.
The numbers behind the table
What were the highest and lowest months and years of the 20-year Treasury?Ours
| Measure | When | Estimated return, percent | After inflation, percent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Highest month | November 2008 | +14.80 | n/a |
| Lowest month | January 2009 | −10.93 | n/a |
| Highest year | 1995 | +32.45 | +29.17 |
| Lowest year | 2022 | −25.97 | −30.46 |
What is the average yearly return?Compound yearly rate
1994 to 2025: +4.81% a year. This is the compound yearly rate over the 32 whole years shown, the one rate that, repeated every year, gives the same total growth as those years do. It is not the mean of the yearly figures.
After inflation, 1994 to 2025: +2.22% a year, the compound yearly rate over the 32 whole years in that span that have a figure after inflation.
How are these returns worked out, and what do they leave out?Method, limits and source
Method and limits
- These are estimates for a bond of constant length, worked out from Treasury's yields. They are not the prices or returns of a real bond or fund, and they leave out costs, taxes and trading.
- A month-end is the last day Treasury published a curve in that month, which can be up to three days before the month ends. A month appears once the next month's first curve day exists.
- Each month a 20-year par bond is bought at the previous month-end's par yield, which is also its coupon, paid every half-year. One month later it is valued at the new month-end's par yield for the same term, with one month less to run, and the month's interest is added. The month's return is that value over 100, less one.
- A year is its twelve months compounded, worked out from the unrounded months, so it can differ in the last digit from compounding the printed months. After inflation, a year is divided by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U, all items, not seasonally adjusted) from December of the year before to December of the year. The index is for a month and the yield for its last curve day, so the two are close in time, not the same days.
- A month has a figure only when the 20-year par yield is published on its month-end and on the month-end before. A year has a figure only when every month of it does, and the year still running shows its months and a figure through its last month, and none after inflation until both Decembers of the index are published. Nothing is filled in.
- The par yield is a value on a curve Treasury fits each business day, not the yield of one security.
Source: U.S. Treasury, daily par yield curve rates; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), all items, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted, series CUUR0000SA0.
Observed .
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