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30-year TIPS auction of 18 October 2018 (reopening)

The 30-year TIPS sold $5 billion at a high real yield of 1.235% on , with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.32.

Coupon
1.000%
Announced
Issued
Matures

Real yield

1.235%

Median real yield 1.170%

Bid-to-cover

2.32

▼ −0.30 since 21 Jun

Sold

$5.00 billion

$5 billion offered

Indirect bidders

75.7%

Of competitive bids accepted

The high real yield was the highest for a 30-year TIPS since 20 February 2014

Real yield at each 30-year TIPS auction, %

The high real yield was the highest for a 30-year TIPS since 20 February 201432 auctions from 8 April 1998 to 18 October 2018; the latest at 1.235%.0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%199920002001201020112012201320142015201620172018This auction, 1.235%The high real yield was the highest for a 30-year TIPS since 20 February 201432 auctions from 8 April 1998 to 18 October 2018; the latest at 1.235%.0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%20122013201420152016201720181.235%

Source: U.S. Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service, Fiscal Data, Treasury Securities Auctions Data. Observed .

The 32 auctions as a table
Real yield and bid-to-cover of the last 32 30-year TIPS auctions, newest first
AuctionReal yield, %Bid-to-cover
1.2352.32
0.9342.62
1.0032.31
0.9082.64
0.8802.83
0.9232.25
0.6662.28
0.9052.69
1.1202.11
1.2002.62
1.1422.45
0.8422.43
0.9852.29
1.1162.76
1.4952.34
1.3302.76
1.4202.48
0.6392.47
0.4792.82
0.5202.64
0.7702.46
0.9993.06
1.7443.02
2.1902.54
1.7682.78
2.2292.45
3.4652.23
3.9531.98
4.138–
3.899–
3.680–
3.740–

Against its own history

Against the previous 12 auctions of the 30-year TIPS
MeasureThis auctionMedianHigherLower
Bid-to-cover ratio2.322.447 of 125 of 12
High real yield1.2350.9280 of 1212 of 12
Indirect bidders' share75.770.64 of 128 of 12
Direct bidders' share0.94.410 of 122 of 12
Primary dealers' share23.323.05 of 127 of 12
High minus median, basis points6.56.66 of 126 of 12

The table scrolls sideways; the first column stays in place.

Who bought the 30-year TIPS?

Indirect bidders took 75.7% of the competitive bids accepted

Share of competitive bids accepted, %. Grey: the previous 30-year TIPS auction, 21 June 2018

Indirect bidders took 75.7% of the competitive bids acceptedIndirect bidders 75.7%, Direct bidders 0.9%, Primary dealers 23.3%Indirect bidders75.7%80.8%Direct bidders0.9%4.6%Primary dealers23.3%14.6%Indirect bidders took 75.7% of the competitive bids acceptedIndirect bidders 75.7%, Direct bidders 0.9%, Primary dealers 23.3%Indirect bidders75.7%80.8%Direct bidders0.9%4.6%Primary dealers23.3%14.6%
The shares as a table
Shares of competitive bids accepted, %
BidderThis auctionPrevious
Indirect bidders75.780.8
Direct bidders0.94.6
Primary dealers23.314.6

About these figures

Treasury's full result, how to read it, its limits and sources

Treasury's published result

FieldValue
Offered as29-Year 4-Month, reopening
Offering amount$5,000,000,000
Bids received$11,583,727,400
Sold$5,000,003,100
Competitive bids accepted$4,998,075,700
Non-competitive bids accepted$1,927,400
Federal Reserve (SOMA) add-on$0
Foreign and international (FIMA) non-competitive$0
Real yield, %1.235
Median rate, %1.170
Low rate, %0.888
Interest rate (coupon), %1.000
Bids at the high rate filled, %47.98
Bid-to-cover ratio2.32
Indirect bidders accepted$3,784,893,700
Direct bidders accepted$46,995,000
Primary dealers accepted$1,166,187,000
Indirect bidders' share, % (ours)75.7
Direct bidders' share, % (ours)0.9
Primary dealers' share, % (ours)23.3
High minus median, basis points (ours)6.5
Treasury real par yield curve, 30-year point, same day, %1.24
High yield minus that point, basis points (ours)-0.5

Treasury's own files: announcement (PDF) · results (PDF)

How to read this result

The high real yield is the highest rate Treasury accepted; every winning bidder gets it. The bid-to-cover ratio is bids received divided by the amount sold. Shares are of competitive bids accepted. High minus median shows how far the accepted cut-off sat above the middle accepted bid; it is not the market's auction tail, which needs a when-issued price that is not public.

The real par yield curve comparison sets the high yield against Treasury's own real par yield curve on the auction day, at the point nearest this security's maturity (30-year). Treasury fixes that curve from market quotes in the late afternoon, after the auction closed, so the gap mixes the auction's pricing with the afternoon's market move. It is not the auction tail either.

What this number cannot tell you

  • Why it sold where it did. Results show what was bid and accepted, not the reasons behind any bid.
  • The auction tail as markets quote it. That compares the high yield with the when-issued yield just before bids closed, a market price that is not public; we show high minus median instead, a different measure.
  • Who the bidders are. Indirect bidders include foreign and international accounts bidding through the New York Fed and investors bidding through dealers; Treasury does not publish names.
  • Demand on another day. A bid-to-cover ratio counts bids at one auction against the amount offered, and the amount offered changes from auction to auction.

The longer windows

Each measure against earlier 30-year TIPS auctions: how many were higher and lower, and their median
MeasureThis auctionWindowHigherLowerMedian
Bid-to-cover ratio2.32Last 24 auctions19 of 245 of 242.58
Bid-to-cover ratio2.32Since 22 February 201020 of 255 of 252.54
Bid-to-cover ratio2.32All 27 since 11 October 200020 of 277 of 272.48
High real yield1.235Last 24 auctions6 of 2418 of 240.992
High real yield1.235Since 22 February 20107 of 2518 of 250.999
High real yield1.235All 31 since 8 April 199813 of 3118 of 311.120
Indirect bidders' share75.7Last 24 auctions4 of 2420 of 2462.6
Indirect bidders' share75.7All 25 since 22 February 20104 of 2521 of 2560.8
Direct bidders' share0.9Last 24 auctions21 of 243 of 247.4
Direct bidders' share0.9All 25 since 22 February 201022 of 253 of 256.6
Primary dealers' share23.3Last 24 auctions17 of 247 of 2430.6
Primary dealers' share23.3All 25 since 22 February 201018 of 257 of 2531.0
High minus median, basis points6.5Last 24 auctions11 of 2413 of 246.4
High minus median, basis points6.5Since 22 February 201012 of 2513 of 256.4
High minus median, basis points6.5All 31 since 8 April 199814 of 3117 of 316.3

The table scrolls sideways; the first column stays in place.

Sources

Source: U.S. Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service, Fiscal Data, Treasury Securities Auctions Data. Observed .

Shares of competitive bids, grades against earlier auctions and the high-minus-median spread are computed by 500metrics from Treasury's published fields; how.

Source: U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury par yield curve rates. Observed .

How to cite this

U.S. Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service, Fiscal Data, Treasury Securities Auctions Data, auction of 18 October 2018. Results file: https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2018/R_20181018_1.pdf. Compiled by 500metrics, "30-year TIPS auction of 18 October 2018 (reopening)", https://500metrics.com/treasury/auctions/30-year-tips/2018-10-18.

Sources and licence

Sources and licence

  • U.S. Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service, Fiscal Data (source). Licence: Public domain, a work of the US federal government
  • U.S. Treasury, daily par yield curve rates (source). Licence: Public domain, a work of the US federal government

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