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30-year bond auction of 10 November 2016 (new issue)

The 30-year bond sold $18.284 billion at a high yield of 2.902% on , with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.11.

Coupon
2.875%
Announced
Issued
Matures

High yield

2.902%

Median yield 2.826%

Bid-to-cover

2.11

▼ −0.33 since 13 Oct

Sold

$18.28 billion

$15 billion offered

Indirect bidders

54.5%

Of competitive bids accepted

High yield at the last 36 30-year bond auctions

High yield at each 30-year bond auction, %

High yield at the last 36 30-year bond auctions36 auctions from 12 December 2013 to 10 November 2016; the latest at 2.902%.2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%201420152016This auction, 2.902%High yield at the last 36 30-year bond auctions36 auctions from 12 December 2013 to 10 November 2016; the latest at 2.902%.2.0%2.3%2.5%2.8%3.0%3.3%201520162.902%

Source: U.S. Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service, Fiscal Data, Treasury Securities Auctions Data. Observed .

The 36 auctions as a table
High yield and bid-to-cover of the last 36 30-year bond auctions, newest first
AuctionHigh yield, %Bid-to-cover
2.9022.11
2.4702.44
2.4752.13
2.2742.24
2.1722.48
2.4752.42
2.6152.19
2.5962.40
2.7202.33
2.5002.09
2.9052.29
2.9782.42
3.0702.41
2.9142.46
2.9802.54
2.8802.26
3.0842.23
3.1382.54
3.0442.20
2.5972.18
2.6812.18
2.5602.26
2.4302.32
2.8482.76
3.0922.29
3.0742.40
3.2402.67
3.2242.60
3.3692.40
3.4442.69
3.4402.09
3.5252.52
3.6302.35
3.6902.27
3.8992.57
3.9002.35

Against its own history

Against the previous 12 auctions of the 30-year bond
MeasureThis auctionMedianHigherLower
Bid-to-cover ratio2.112.3611 of 121 of 12
High yield2.9022.5483 of 129 of 12
Indirect bidders' share54.561.212 of 120 of 12
Direct bidders' share12.510.20 of 1212 of 12
Primary dealers' share33.128.11 of 1211 of 12
High minus median, basis points7.64.61 of 1211 of 12

The table scrolls sideways; the first column stays in place.

  • Indirect bidders' share: Lowest for a 30-year bond since 13 August 2015 (14 auctions in between).
  • Direct bidders' share: Highest for a 30-year bond since 8 October 2015 (12 auctions in between).

Who bought the 30-year bond?

Indirect bidders took 54.5% of the competitive bids accepted

Share of competitive bids accepted, %. Grey: the previous 30-year bond auction, 13 October 2016

Indirect bidders took 54.5% of the competitive bids acceptedIndirect bidders 54.5%, Direct bidders 12.5%, Primary dealers 33.1%Indirect bidders54.5%65.4%Direct bidders12.5%6.1%Primary dealers33.1%28.5%Indirect bidders took 54.5% of the competitive bids acceptedIndirect bidders 54.5%, Direct bidders 12.5%, Primary dealers 33.1%Indirect bidders54.5%65.4%Direct bidders12.5%6.1%Primary dealers33.1%28.5%
The shares as a table
Shares of competitive bids accepted, %
BidderThis auctionPrevious
Indirect bidders54.565.4
Direct bidders12.56.1
Primary dealers33.128.5

About these figures

Treasury's full result, how to read it, its limits and sources

Treasury's published result

FieldValue
Offered as30-Year, new issue
Offering amount$15,000,000,000
Bids received$34,886,215,400
Sold$18,283,818,600
Competitive bids accepted$14,990,499,200
Non-competitive bids accepted$9,500,800
Federal Reserve (SOMA) add-on$3,283,818,600
Foreign and international (FIMA) non-competitive$0
High yield, %2.902
Median rate, %2.826
Low rate, %2.688
Interest rate (coupon), %2.875
Bids at the high rate filled, %35.56
Bid-to-cover ratio2.11
Indirect bidders accepted$8,162,387,200
Direct bidders accepted$1,873,000,000
Primary dealers accepted$4,955,112,000
Indirect bidders' share, % (ours)54.5
Direct bidders' share, % (ours)12.5
Primary dealers' share, % (ours)33.1
High minus median, basis points (ours)7.6
Treasury par yield curve, 30-year point, same day, %2.94
High yield minus that point, basis points (ours)-3.8

Treasury's own files: announcement (PDF) · results (PDF)

How to read this result

The high yield is the highest rate Treasury accepted; every winning bidder gets it. The bid-to-cover ratio is bids received divided by the amount sold. Shares are of competitive bids accepted. High minus median shows how far the accepted cut-off sat above the middle accepted bid; it is not the market's auction tail, which needs a when-issued price that is not public.

The par yield curve comparison sets the high yield against Treasury's own par yield curve on the auction day, at the point nearest this security's maturity (30-year). Treasury fixes that curve from market quotes in the late afternoon, after the auction closed, so the gap mixes the auction's pricing with the afternoon's market move. It is not the auction tail either.

What this number cannot tell you

  • Why it sold where it did. Results show what was bid and accepted, not the reasons behind any bid.
  • The auction tail as markets quote it. That compares the high yield with the when-issued yield just before bids closed, a market price that is not public; we show high minus median instead, a different measure.
  • Who the bidders are. Indirect bidders include foreign and international accounts bidding through the New York Fed and investors bidding through dealers; Treasury does not publish names.
  • Demand on another day. A bid-to-cover ratio counts bids at one auction against the amount offered, and the amount offered changes from auction to auction.

The longer windows

Each measure against earlier 30-year bond auctions: how many were higher and lower, and their median
MeasureThis auctionWindowHigherLowerMedian
Bid-to-cover ratio2.11Last 24 auctions23 of 241 of 242.30
Bid-to-cover ratio2.11Since 8 May 200888 of 934 of 932.47
Bid-to-cover ratio2.11All 100 since 8 February 200190 of 1009 of 1002.46
High yield2.902Last 24 auctions9 of 2415 of 242.700
High yield2.902Since 8 May 200873 of 9320 of 933.310
High yield2.902All 167 since 1 November 1979147 of 16720 of 1674.520
Indirect bidders' share54.5Last 24 auctions14 of 2410 of 2457.2
Indirect bidders' share54.5All 93 since 8 May 200814 of 9379 of 9340.7
Direct bidders' share12.5Last 24 auctions6 of 2418 of 2410.6
Direct bidders' share12.5All 93 since 8 May 200846 of 9347 of 9312.4
Primary dealers' share33.1Last 24 auctions10 of 2414 of 2431.6
Primary dealers' share33.1All 93 since 8 May 200875 of 9318 of 9343.4
High minus median, basis points7.6Last 24 auctions1 of 2423 of 245.1
High minus median, basis points7.6Since 8 May 200813 of 9380 of 934.7
High minus median, basis points7.6All 167 since 1 November 197914 of 167153 of 1673.6

The table scrolls sideways; the first column stays in place.

Sources

Source: U.S. Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service, Fiscal Data, Treasury Securities Auctions Data. Observed .

Shares of competitive bids, grades against earlier auctions and the high-minus-median spread are computed by 500metrics from Treasury's published fields; how.

Source: U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury par yield curve rates. Observed .

How to cite this

U.S. Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service, Fiscal Data, Treasury Securities Auctions Data, auction of 10 November 2016. Results file: https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2016/R_20161110_1.pdf. Compiled by 500metrics, "30-year bond auction of 10 November 2016 (new issue)", https://500metrics.com/treasury/auctions/30-year-bond/2016-11-10.

Sources and licence

Sources and licence

  • U.S. Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service, Fiscal Data (source). Licence: Public domain, a work of the US federal government
  • U.S. Treasury, daily par yield curve rates (source). Licence: Public domain, a work of the US federal government

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